Peramalan Jumlah Penderita Jenis Penyakit Utama  Di Kota Surabaya Menggunakan Metode  Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

Tri Diana Rimadhani; Amalia Anjani Arifiyanti; Rizka Hadiwiyanti

doi:10.55606/srjyappi.v1i5.612

Authors

Tri Diana Rimadhani UPN “Veteran” Jawa Timur
Amalia Anjani Arifiyanti UPN “Veteran” Jawa Timur
Rizka Hadiwiyanti UPN “Veteran” Jawa timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55606/srjyappi.v1i5.612

Keywords:

forecast, disease, ARIMA

Abstract

The decline in Covid-19 pandemic cases over the past few months before 2023 not only reduced Indonesia's challenges in dealing with other types of diseases. Surabaya city itself has health issues that need to be addressed, as indicated by an increase in several diseases in 2022. One attempt to handle disease cases is to predict the future case numbers to anticipate actions early on. By using data on the number of cases of Respiratory System Diseases during the year 2022, this data will be used to predict the number of cases in the coming months in 2023 by creating a variation of a univariate ARIMA forecasting model. Therefore, the research results show forecasted data that tend to increase when viewed from the analysis and the plotted graph of the forecast results.

References

CNN Indonesia. (2022). Deretan Penyakit dan Masalah Kesehatan di Indonesia sepanjang 2022. Retrieved from https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20221226070250-20-891959/deretan-penyakit-dan-masalah-kesehatan-di-indonesia-sepanjang-2022#.

Detik Jatim. (2023). Hingga Maret 2023, 1.691 Kasus TBC Ditemukan di Surabaya. Retrieved from https://www.detik.com/jatim/berita/d-6655833/hingga-maret-2023-1691-kasus-tbc-ditemukan-di-surabaya.

Hariadi, W., & Sulantari. (2021). Application Of ARIMA Model For Forecasting Additional Positive Cases Of Covid-19 In Jember Regency. Enthusiastic International Journal Of Statistics And Data Science, 20-27.

Kementrian Kesehatan. (2022). Masalah dan Tantangan Kesehatan Indonesia Saat Ini. Retrieved from https://kesmas.kemkes.go.id/konten/133/0/masalah-dan-tantangan-kesehatan-indonesia-saat-ini.

Liputan6.com. (2022). 6 Fakta Menarik Surabaya, Kota Pahlawan yang Punya Taman Terbaik di Asia. Retrieved from https://www.liputan6.com/lifestyle/read/4929979/6-fakta-menarik-surabaya-kota-pahlawan-yang-punya-taman-terbaik-di-asia.

Meilani, S., & Pardistya, I. Y. (2020)). Pengaruh Return On Equity (Roe) Dan Current Ratio (Cr) Terhadap Harga Saham. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 1159-1180.

Moosa, I. A. (n.d.). Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications.

Rahayu, R. (2022). Penerapan Forecasting Dalam Jumlah Kasus Penyakit Malaria Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Informatika Dan Teknologi Informasi, 98-103.

Sigit, N., & Setiyoargo, A. (2020). Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Penderita Hipertensi Pada Lansia Di Kabupaten. Jurnal Rekam Medis dan Informasi Kesehatan, 7-12.

Syaharuddin, Akmala, Q. S., & Sucipto, L. (2022). Metode ARIMA, ARIMAX, Dan SARIMA: Sebuah Meta-. Jurnal Informatika Kaputama (JIK), 502-509.